Define the market
Agree what counts: the product, the buyers, the area and the time frame. Most arguments about market size start here.
What counts
ProductCanned cold brew coffee
BuyersUS adults
AreaUnited States
Time frameThe first year
Market sizing & demand forecasting
Size your market and plan for demand
We estimate the size of your market two ways, from public data and from a survey of the people who would buy, and check one against the other. For demand, we build low, middle and high cases, with every assumption written down.
- ModelTop-down and bottom-up sizing
- You bringThe product, the price and where you will sell
- You getLow, middle and high demand, with every assumption listed
buyers×share who would buy×purchases a year
The problem
A single market number hides its assumptions
Market size figures are easy to find and hard to trust. A report gives a total but rarely says who was counted, at what price or how often they buy. A demand plan built on that number carries its errors. We build the estimate in steps you can check: how many people are in the market, how many buy, how often and at what price. Every step has a source or a survey result behind it.
A report gives
One market total
Who was counted? At what price? How often?
- How many people are in the marketPublic data
- How many buy in the categorySurvey
- How often they buySurvey
- At what priceSurvey
- How much stated intent to trustAssumption
Play with the model
Move an assumption and watch the forecast move
Every input is a slider. Pick a case, then change any assumption to see which one matters most.
Start from a case, then move any assumption
US adultsPublic data: the starting population, per 1,0001,000
380
198
91
36
291
Which assumption matters most: first-year cans as each one moves from its low to its high case
- Expected to really buy218 to 400
- Cans a year per buyer218 to 364
- Would buy it at $4.49253 to 329
- Interested once it is described257 to 324
- Buy ready-to-drink coffee260 to 321
Matters most right now: expected to really buy.
The demand curve: cans per 1,000 adults, adding up month by month
Low to high caseYour current case
Drawn on the worked example further down: Example: first-year demand for a canned cold brew
- 01
People say they will buy more often than they do, so stated intent is scaled down and the adjustment is shown.
- 02
When top-down and bottom-up disagree, the gap points to an assumption worth checking.
- 03
A range, not one number: we do not yet have our own calibration data from past launches.
In CatalyseAI today
The survey side runs on ordinary CatalyseAI question types that are live today, with up to five audience groups compared and the results in PowerPoint, Excel and CSV.
10+years in sampling and fieldwork
309ready-made question templates
20question types
How the model works
How we build the estimate
Work down from public data
Start from population and industry figures and narrow them to the buyers you can actually serve.
Top-down, from public data
All US adults
Buy ready-to-drink coffee
Shop where the can will be sold
Could realistically be won
Each layer narrows the one above it, with its source
Work up from a survey
Ask category buyers how often they buy, what they pay now, how interested they are in your idea and whether they would buy it at your price.
Survey of category buyers
Work up from what buyers say
- How often do you buy ready-to-drink coffee?
- What do you usually pay?
- How interested are you in this new can?
- Would you buy it at $4.49?
Compare and adjust
Set the two estimates side by side. People say they will buy more often than they do, so we scale stated intent down and show that adjustment as an assumption you can change.
Compare and adjust
Bottom-up, as stated
Top-down ceiling
Bottom-up, intent scaled down
The adjustment is an assumption you can change
Build the demand cases
Turn the estimate into low, middle and high demand for the period you plan for. If you share sales history, it sets the starting point.
Low, middle and high cases for the period you plan for
The deliverables
What you get
Every CatalyseAI report downloads in these formats.
- PowerPoint deck
- Excel workbook
- CSV
- Chart images (PNG)
- D1
The market in layers
The whole market, the part you can serve and a share you could realistically win, each with its source.
- D2
A survey-based demand estimate
Buyers, times the share who would buy, times purchases a year, shown as a range.
- D3
Low, middle and high cases
With the assumptions that separate them, so you can see which one matters most.
- D4
An assumptions list
Every input, where it came from and how sure we are of it.
- D5
A profile of likely buyers
Who they are by age, region and current habits, from the survey.
The terms, in plain words
The inputs we measure
- Category buyers
- The share of adults who buy in the category.
- Purchase frequency
- How often they buy.
- Price paid today
- What they spend now.
- Interest
- The share who want the new product once it is described.
- Likelihood to buy at your price
- The share who say they would buy at the price you plan. To test several prices, see pricing research.
Worked example
Example: first-year demand for a canned cold brew
A US drinks start-up plans a canned cold brew coffee at $4.49 and needs a first-year production number. Public data gives the number of US adults and figures on coffee buying. A survey of US adults on our panel measures who buys ready-to-drink coffee, how often, and how many would buy the new can at $4.49. The two estimates are compared, stated intent is scaled down, and the start-up gets low, middle and high first-year volumes to plan production and stock.
FAQ
Questions, answered
Top-down or bottom-up: which is better?
Neither on its own. Top-down sets a ceiling, and bottom-up shows what buyers say they will do. When the two disagree, the gap usually points to an assumption worth checking.
Can a survey predict our sales?
Not exactly. People say they will buy more often than they really do. We scale stated intent down, show the adjustment and give a range rather than one number. We do not yet have our own calibration data from past launches.
What do you need from us?
Your definition of the market, the price you plan, where you will sell and any sales history you can share. None of it is needed to start, but each item narrows the range.
Which countries can you size?
The examples on this page are for the US. For other countries, we check public data and sample reach first and tell you what is realistic.
Related
Goes well with
Start with the market definition
Send us the product, the price you have in mind and the buyers you expect. We will reply with the approach and the data we would use.
Nearest office: Orlando, FL (corporate office)